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In This paper energy intensity has been decomposed by ideal Fisher index into structural and intensity effect. Results show Structural effect doesn't have considerable changes and the amplitude of fluctuations is around 0.95 and 1.06. Structural effect is slightly more than 1, it means economic activities tend to produce commodities which use more energy but the small change in the share of economic activities has trifle effect on higher energy intensity. However Intensity effect which shows changes in energy intensity independent of compound of economic activities has raising trend. Expect in 1982 intense effect is more than one and means more energy has been used for same commodity. Rising trend of intensity effect shows that waste of energy and inefficiency have risen. Trend of aggregate energy intensity, ratio of energy intensity of current year to constant year, is like intensity effect and influence of structural effect on it, is negligible.

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors affecting the emission of carbon compounds (carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide), resulting from energy consumption in the transport sector according to the subdivision (road, rail and air) for the period 1999-2011. For this purpose, index decomposition analysis (IDA) has been used. Factors influencing on carbon compounds emissions are coefficient of emission, energy intensity, changes in fuel mix, mode of transportation, structural changes, economic growth, population growth, and price. Results show that economic activity and population growth have respectively the greatest impacts on the on CO2 and CO emission in Iranian transport sector. The effect of coefficient of emission and changes in fuel mix varies during the years. The modes of transportation have little effect. Studying on price effects shows that low fuel price cause increase in carbon compounds emissions. The energy intensity and structural changes in the transport sector has been somewhat decreasing effect on emissions. In the road transport sector the situation is similar. In this section, the greatest impact coefficients of emission and changes in fuel mix have been on reducing emissions of carbon monoxide. In the rail and air sector as subsector transportation, scale of economic activity have greatest impact on CO2 and CO emission growth. The results show that the combined use of clean fuels, development of public transport and rail and infrastructure development in all sectors of transport can reduce emissions of carbon compounds.

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The purpose of this article is to investigate the feasibility of forming an optimum currency area among Economic Cooperation Organization  (ECO) member countries.  One of the most important criteria in forming currency :union: between countries of one reign is synchronization of economic shocks. In other words, if fluctuations of macroeconomic variables source of   regional member countries are regional shocks, then forming a monetary :union: between those countries would be an appropriate policy. This paper uses Bayesian state-space model in order to obtain the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in ECO countries. And fluctuations in GDP, consumption and investment in these countries were due to 4 non-observable factors of world common shocks, regional common shocks, country specific shocks and idiosyncratic shocks. The results indicate that regional shocks don’t play a predominant role in explaining fluctuations of gross domestic production, consumption and investment in ECO member countries. Although, the share of regional shocks in macroeconomic shocks has been increased after forming the ECO organization, but still the country shocks has the most important role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations. Then according to results, the policymakers should apply independent monetary policy encountering business cycles, so the use of a common currency area among ECO countries is not a proper monetary policy.

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Different detrending methods make possible to evaluate cyclical features of economic time series from different perspectives. In this way, it can be assessed whether different approaches to extract cycles, can provide useful information in order to better understanding behaviors of economic variables in business cycles. In this paper, we investigate Iran economic cyclical features through using different detrending methods and provide comparisons of their results. The results show that considering the unit root process for the trend of GDP and its components when decomposing into trend and cycle, can notably influences on the relationship between the cyclical components of important macroeconomic variables. This matter is also applicable in recognition of expansion and contraction, volatility and co-movements of variables. Findings indicate that direction of cyclical component movement of consumption, investment, and real wage, as well as the timing of investment and import, depends on whether the trend is considered DSP or not. Besides, the results demonstrate that price level is counter cyclical and import, and export are procyclical. In respect of timing, export is lagging and in most of the results, import is leading and price level is lagging.

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As one of the most important economic variables, exchange rate imposes many risks on another sectors of the economy. One of the important functions of the central banks is to proper manage these fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and to reduce the risks it poses to economic activists in the short, medium and long-term periods. This study introduces and estimates new indicators of exchange rate fluctuations in different time scales to manage the exchange rate fluctuations more appropriately according to the central bank's approach. This method utilizes the combination of the wavelet and GARCH models, and data is collected from Iran’s foreign exchange market for the period of Sep-2008 to 2015.
 
 
 

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In this study, with employing a combination of Index Decomposition Analysis and Production-Theoretical Decomposition Analysis approach, based on multiplicative approach analysis and period-wise and chain-link analysis, we evaluate the influential factors on energy intensity in the period 2006-2012. In this regards, we calculate the indexes of structural effect, activity effect, intensity effect, technological changes, changes in technical performance, and the substitution rate of the labor force and capital with energy for the Iranian economic sectors included industry, transportation, and agriculture. Furthermore, we consider these indices for consumption of the different type of energy like crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and electricity. The results of this study show that energy intensity in all three economic sectors increased during the period. Based on economic sector's data, substitution of the labor force with energy is the most important determinant of total change in energy intensity. However, if in addition to economic sector's data, we use energy consumption data, production effect is the most important factor. The substitution of the labor force with energy is the most important factor affecting the sectoral energy intensity. Changes in technical efficiency during this period show that total energy consumption decreased and has the lowest share in total consumption growth and energy intensity. Also, the results show that comparing based on chain-link analysis has more realistic and reliable results for policymakers.
 
 

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Achieving a low unemployment rate has been the goal of all six post-revolutionary development programs as well as other major macro programs. However, the Iranian economy has experienced an average unemployment rate of 10 to 15 percent in recent decades, with no declining trend, so searching about the created employment is essential for proper future policy making. The present study analyzes the developments of Iranian employment during the fourth and fifth development programs (1995-2005) at the provincial level. For this purpose, the logarithmic mean Divisia (LMD) decomposition method is used and the net employment created in each province is subdivided into three effects including economic growth, technical coefficient and structural changes. This study has two conclusions: 1) Economic growth during the fourth and fifth development programs played a significant role in provincial employment changes, so pursuing growth-oriented strategies – in comparison to survival-oriented strategy and short-term employment policies – could be a more desirable goal. 2) The role of structural changes in increasing or decreasing employment is not significant, and in addition, there is no conclusive evidence on job creating or job reducing of a sector. As a result, instead of the inclusive version of development with priority of one sector (agriculture, industry or service), acting on the sub-sectoral benefits of provinces that will ensure sustainable growth is a better approach.
 

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In the energy economics literature, one of the most important approaches to managing energy demand is to improve energy efficiency, which is associated with a concept called a rebound effect. The rebound effect causes the energy saving (due to improved efficiency) to be less than expected. Considering the importance of using oil products in the Iranian economy, the present paper tries to track the factors affecting the rebound of petroleum products (gasoline, gas oil and other products) by applying a 5% shock to improving their efficiency and quantitatively, for this purpose, the analysis of the rebound effect at two macro levels and a part is done in two steps in the form of a computable general equilibrium model. The results of this paper, indicate that among the oil products, improvement of the efficiency of "other oil products" has the least effect on the economy-wide rebound effect, and improving the efficiency of gasoil has the highest economy-wide rebound effect. The results of the decomposition of the rebound effect at the macro level are those of the manufacturing sector, which are the major consumers of oil products (a larger share of the total energy consumption of production), the main factors in the formation of the rebound effect, so that in the case of gasoline, the "road transport" section accounts for 35.2 percent of the economy-wide rebound effect. In the final demand side, urban households account for 20% of the economy-wide rebound effect. The decomposition of the rebound effect at sector level also indicates the domination of the mechanism of substitution effect on output effect in the formation of the rebound effect.

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Fiscal policies are one of the most important policies that are used in the field of demand management. Implementing fiscal policies is one of the most important policy-making tools to achieve macroeconomic goals such as Distribution ‌Fair ‌Income, ‌Increasing ‌Rate ‌Growth ‌Economic ‌And ‌Employment ‌And Stabilizing ‌Price.

Since economic policies have a significant impact on financial market returns, this study investigates the impact of fiscal policies on stock market returns in selected oil exporting countries using panel vector autoregressive model (PVAR). In this study, to select a statistical population, the method of systematic elimination was used in the period 2004 to 2018. The variables studied are GDP gap, budget balance, public debt, GDP and capital market returns. Based on the results of the graphs of the recentered influence functions, the effects of GDP gap, public debt are positive on stock returns and the effect of budget balance on stock market is negative. The effects of fluctuations of stock market returns on itself is positive too. According to these graphs, these effects are bidirectional. Also, the results of the forecast error variance decomposition analysis confirm the bidirectional relation between stock market and fiscal policy variables.

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According to the regional economic literature, interregional communication can play an important role in production, followed by production-related variables such as employment. For this reason, changing (strengthening or weakening) inter-regional communication can lead to changes in production and employment in the regions. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to investigate the change of regional spillovers and feedback coefficients on changes of regional employment in Sistan and Baluchestan province using a two-regional input-output model and structural decomposition analysis. Two-regional input-output tables including Sistan and Baluchestan province and other regions of the country in the years 2006 and 2011 were used as database of this study. The results of the model showed that the effect of changing spillovers and feedback coefficients on the total employment of the province is positive and caused to increase in total employment. The increase of total employment of the provincechr('39')s economy due to changes of these factors was 21,852 and 197, respectively. The effect of changes of these two factors on sectoral employment in the province has also shown that “Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fisheries” have had the most positive effect from the change of both factors.