---

The theoretical foundations of the Dutch Disease are considered in this paper, and using the appropriate indices its existence in Iranian economy is tested. On the basis of theoretical considerations, the initial impact of injecting foreign exchanges derived from exporting raw materials is the strengthening of the national currency and the growth of the money supply within the national economy. This will not only induce higher levels of aggregate consumption but will also, in conjunction with the non-optimal structure of the production system, increase the fixed cost of capital and the nominal money cost of the production by increasing the ratio of the price index for non-tradable goods to that of the tradables. The above-mentioned factors, together with the incompetitiveness of domestic industrial products are usually referred to as the symptoms of Dutch Disease. One of the main and significant indices for testing the existence of Dutch Disease from the theoretical and statistical points of view is the ratio of the price index of non-tradable goods to that of the tradables. Unfortunately, the statistical data for such a dichotomy does not exist in Iran. The statistical data derived from a proxy index indicates that with the growth of oil export revenues the ratio of the price indices of tradable goods to the non-tradables, which have experienced smooth growth during the past years, have recently shown accelerations. This signifies and supports the hypothesis of the existence of a mild Dutch Disease in Iranian economy especially during the recent years, though the reservation exists as to the concrete conclusions based on its existence.

---

Over the last decades the most important problem in developing countries was the rate of economic growth. This has led to more attention to the development strategies, In this regard, policy makers and economists showed more interests in downgrading the size of Governments towards improving the performance of markets as well as better resource allocations. This paper attempts to examine the private sector and its activities as a topical issue in Iranian economy. The aims and basics of the 44th Principle of the Constitution are then analyzed. Regarding the 44th Principle of the Constitution and the Supreme Leader's command on accelerating the privatization process in different economic sectors and along with the objectives of the Fourth Development Plan and the Country’s 20-year Vision, it is expected that the Government will take serious measures towards flourishing Iranian economy with emphasis on increasing economic growth, reducing the unemployment rate and preventing the extra expenses.

---

In this study, the behavior of monetary and fiscal policy in the Iranian economy has been investigated during the period of 1360 to 1392 using Markov switching model. For this purpose, the monetary and fiscal policy rules has been used in which the growth rate of liquidity and the tax revenues are as instruments of the monetary and fiscal policies. The results from the likelihood ratio test show that both the fiscal and monetary policy rules in the Iranian economy follow a regime switching model.
Based on the results from the estimation of fiscal and monetary policies rules using a Markov switching model, the period of study divided into three periods in the years of 1360 to 1364, both monetary and fiscal policymakers have faced with passive monetary and fiscal policies, so that, they did not have an adaptive behavioral interaction with each other. During the years of 1365 to 1387, the Iranian economy has faced with the passive monetary policy but an active fiscal policy, So that, in this period, the monetary policymaker has no powerful reaction in adjustment of its policy instruments to increasing inflation at the same
time, increasing the outstanding debt of government decreases the tax
revenues and increases the budget deficit. Finally, in the period of 1388 to
1392, the policymakers follow the passive monetary and fiscal policies

---

---

The performance of banking system in attracting deposits, loan payment and inside money creation may cause the economy facing with potential challenges. Misallocation of resources in banking system and intensifying stagflation, monetary disequilibrium and transmitting its outcomes to real sector, the problems due to differences in maturity date and deviation in allocation of banking credits to productive sectors are items that can be seen in bank-based Iran economy. This paper is investigating system dynamics effects of inside money creation on inflation in Iran economy. During 1973-2014 liquidity has been 15100 times more but real GDP has been just 2 times. In this regard there are some important questions. Why liquidity has raised so much in Iran economy? What is the relationship between this increase in liquidity and inflation in Iran economy? To what extent has the conventional banking system played in causing inflation and liquidity growth? Specifically, this article will study these questions by analyzing data of Iran economy, based on system dynamics approach. Results from creating different scenarios show that increase in required reserve ratio for short term deposits up to 100%, ceasing bank’s lending power from these deposits, increase in required reserve ratio for long term deposits and determining an equilibrium rate by central bank can decrease the power of money creation through banks. This policy will stabilize money supply, price levels and production costs in long run

---

In recent years, the banking crisis has increased the attention of researchers toward the banking system reform and solutions to it. The banking crisis can be accompanied by a banking run, banking panic, a rise in the Non-performing loan in banking system, fluctuations in cash and non-cash assets, and so on.  On the other hand, the central bank's monetary policy has also played an important role in the emergence of banking crisis by using direct and indirect tools as well as the free access of banks to credit lines and overdrafts from the central bank. In this study, firstly, bank crises in the Iranian economy were identified in the framework of the adjusted index of money market pressure during the period 1973 to 2016 using seasonal data and then the probability of a banking crisis was investigated using the Markov model. The experimental results of this research show that Iran's economy experienced banking crisis in some periods, including early 1979, late-1990, between 1994 and 1996, as well as between 2013 and 2015. Statistical analysis showed that the Central Bank's expansionary monetary policy has played an important role in the emergence of banking crisis and liquidity movements towards immature activities. Hence, moving towards alternative monetary instruments such as the Islamic debt market or the interbank market can play an important role in the effective transfer of liquidity to productive sectors and reduce the government's dominance over the banking system.

---

International standards as well as global experience show that overcoming banking crises requires a wide range of financial instruments/methods that can be used for bankchr('39')s recovery without using public funding.The main question of the present article is to identify these instruments/methods and to examine their use in the case of state-owned and privatized banks in Iran according to local requirements (including religious considerations). For this purpose, the financial instruments of banking crisis management were listed and then by using the Delphi technique exposed to expert judgment in two stages. The results of the article show that in the current situation of Iranchr('39')s economy, it is possible to implement 9 instruments in state-owned banks and 10 instruments in privatized banks, without the need for major changes or modifications. Also, in case of providing institutional bases (through amending laws and regulations or making structural changes), it will be possible to use 2 other instruments in state-owned banks and 5 other instruments in privatized banks.

---

The existence of a structural budget deficit in Iranian economy and the lack of fiscal discipline have raised concerns about the financial stability of governments among economists. In recent decades, fiscal rules have been considered as a way to establish fiscal discipline and financial sustainability of governments around the world. In this regard, the present study seeks to design a fiscal framework based on the three rules of debt ceiling, budget balance and expenditure for Iranian economy. The results of applying the stochastic simulation method show a high level of current public debt compared to the debt rule ceiling estimated by the model and the budget balance rule will be greatly effective in improving the future path of public debt. In other words, applying the budget balance rule reduces the fluctuations of the future path of public debt. It is also suggested to establish an institutional mechanism as a complementary institution with the aim of improving the performance and effectiveness of fiscal rules, especially for expenditures rule and ensuring their implementation

---

Oil-exporting countries often escalate macroeconomic fluctuations by adopting cyclical fiscal policies. Empirical evidence shows that the main reason of instability in oil-exporting countries is the poor management of oil. In this study, after introducing a small open macroeconomic model with a dual managed floating exchange rate regime and estimating it using quarterly macroeconomic data of Iran, five fiscal rules, balanced budget rule (BBR), counter cyclical rule (CCR), structural surplus rule (SSR), government expenditure rule (EXR) and government revenue rule (INR) were introduced. To select the appropriate fiscal rule for Iran, two approaches are used: loss function and Bayes ratio approaches. The results show that both statistical and welfare criteria confirm that the appropriate rule for the Iranian economy is the SSR financial rule. In other words, because the bulk of government revenue comes from oil sales, following a structural budget surplus rule minimizes the negative effects of sharp fluctuations in oil, and the government budget is much better balanced. Also, a single-float managed exchange rate system, along with the selected fiscal rule, leads to higher social welfare.