---

In this research, 5 variables were selected oil price volatility, exchange rate, inflation rate and oil price as independent variables and real stock return as dependent variable. Used data is quarterly that covered the period 1990:Q1 to 2006:Q4 in Iran. Result of the unit root test showed that first of difference in all variables is stationary, [I(1)]. After that, for measuring oil price volatility, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity method was used. After estimating ARIMA model, finally, GARCH (1, 1) was given. In the next part, Vector Auto Regressive model was estimated and optimum lag was determined. In following, Johansen Cointegration test was used for determining number of long run relationship between variables. In this test, Trace and Maximum Eigenvalue was confirmed a long run relationship between model variables. When the result was accepted, Vector Error Correction model was estimated. Overall, result of this model (VECM) showed that oil price volatility and real stock return had directly relationship in short run. There was the same result oil price variable had positive long run effect on real stock return. According to result of this research, we found that exchange rate and inflation rate had negative long run relationship with real stock return.

---

In this article, using New- Keynesian approach for inflation and unemployment which focuses on the menu costs and rigidity of prices and wages, first a bi-variate system including inflation and unemployment and a tri-variate system with inflation, unemployment and mark-up of the costs of labor force have been estimated. Then the long-term relationship between these variables has been estimated by using co-integration and VAR models. The estimation of these two systems gives a positive and long-term relationship between inflation and unemployment. Also the relationship between inflation and mark-up of the cost of labor force has been estimated which is negative and therefore, there is a positive relation between inflation and unemployment. Such Positive relationship indicates chronic stagnation phenomena in the Iranian Economy.

---

In this study, through the elasticity approach, we tried to evaluate the effects of cash subsidy on poverty reduction.
In this regard, after the theoretical arguments about the poverty elasticity to income, Gini Coefficient, and price using the data related to the expenses and incomes of the 14701 urban households from 1389 to 1390, the quantitative value of these elasticity was measured and finally, the effect of paying the cash subsidy on the poverty was calculated based on summing the income effect, inequality and price.  In this study, to measure poverty and the income distribution, foster Greer torbecka and Gini coefficient were used.
The results of the study showed that the income elasticity of poverty is -1.25, the inequality elasticity of poverty is and the price elasticity of poverty is 1.25
The findings of the study suggest that unexpectedly, after the subsidies targetization plan, the poverty not only did not decrease but also experienced an 8% increase from 1389 t0 1390.

---

The construction industry in the housing sector plays an important role in economic growth due to its significant share in GDP compared to other sectors. One of the most important factors hindering the increase of private sector investment in the construction industry is the faltering of trust. Meanwhile, exchange rate uncertainty and inflation have the most negative impact on the investment of construction companies. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the exchange rate uncertainty and inflation rate on the investment of construction companies in the period 1996-2020. To estimate the model, exchange rate uncertainty has been calculated by GARCH method using exchange rate data, then using GMM method, the effect of exchange rate uncertainty and inflation rate on construction companies investment data has been investigated. The results show that a one percent increase in exchange rate uncertainty and inflation has reduced the investment of construction companies by 0/593 and 0/368 percent, respectively. Also, a one percent increase in economic growth has increased the investment of construction companies by 0/119 percent. Based on the effect of estimated coefficients, the share and importance of the construction sector, identifying investment opportunities and threats in the construction industry, government efforts in the correct and scientific implementation of economic policies in order to stabilize the real exchange rate and price index and awareness of the impact of these variables when planning and setting policies are important.

 

---