|
Economic Estimation of Natural Gas Imbalance Damage in Iran's Economy; Modeling of the Balance Sheet of Natural Gas Production and Consumption in the Horizon of 1420
|
Sajad Rajabi *   , Mahdi Sadeqhi Shahdani |
| & PhD in Oil and Gas Economics, Imam Sadeq University , Sajadrajabi@isu.ac.ir |
|
|
Abstract: (111 Views) |
| One of the foremost critical modern issues of Iran's economy is the occurrence of energy imbalance and especially gas imbalance, which due to the special position of this energy in the value added chain, the effects of this imbalance for Iran's economy are far more profound than the temporary shutdown of gas production enterprises or reduction its supply. In this research, assuming the realization of imbalance in the gas balance document in the horizon of 1420, the general balance model based on the input-output table is considered that the deviation of supply and demand (i.e. 111 million cubic meters of natural gas, which is divided into two parts, imbalance in the 4 cold months of the year and imbalance divided in 8 months of the year) is simulated equivalent to 10% unbalance. For this purpose, the input-output table of 2019, which was updated according to the RAS method, and the partial extraction model were used. The results of three research scenarios showed that 1) in case of balanced distribution of 10% gas imbalance to all 70 sectors of the economy, GDP will decrease by 67/5%. 2) If the imbalance is distributed to the sectors of the economy as well as the final demand (households, non-profit sectors, government and public sector), GPD is reduced by 78/2%. 3) If the dispatching center imposes sodium gas on the power plant, petrochemical, refinery and basic metal sectors (which have high gas demand), the economic damage will be 58/8%. In any scenario that is implemented, the "petrochemical", "power plant" and "pipeline transportation" sectors will suffer the most economic damage. |
|
| Keywords: Energy Economy, Input-Output, Partial Extraction Method, Gas Imbalance, Iran's Economy |
|
|
Full-Text [PDF 1794 kb]
(29 Downloads)
|
|
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Send email to the article author |
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
