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:: Volume 22, Issue 72 (Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies 2015) ::
3 2015, 22(72): 77-104 Back to browse issues page
Typological analysis of similarity and predictability of Iran’s financial crisis during 2011-2012 based on previous financial crises of Iran’s economy
Mohammadhossein Ghavam , Jafar Ebadi
U of Tehran, Faculty of Economics , ghavam@ut.ac.ir
Abstract:   (2768 Views)
During previous years, Iran’s economy has been faced with numerous fluctuations, while in some cases it turned to a financial crisis as that of 2011-2012. However, the main question is that whether the financial crisis during 2011-2012 has been similar and predictable based on previous financial crises of Iran’s economy. In the present research, firstly, based on previous studies in the subject of Iran’s financial crises, the years of financial crises in Iran’s economy during years of 1978-2012 were determined. The corresponding results have indicated that three kinds of financial crises including Currency Crises, Money Crises and Twin Crisis (simultaneous Money and Currency Crisis), were occurred in Iran’s economy during 1979-2008. Then the financial crisis periods (in which two or more financial crisis years are included) were determined, the political and economic events during each of them were expressed and the reasons of occurrence of financial crises in each of them were described. Then the data of 10 macroeconomic variables of Iran’s economy belonging to 1978-2012 were deployed. Based on data of 1979-2008 as input data and information about crisis and non-crisis year and special kind of financial crisis in each crisis year as target data, the LVQ model was trained, in order to learn crisis and non-crisis patterns (behavioral patterns of macroeconomic variables in crisis and non-crisis years), and to learn to recognize the various kinds of crisis patterns (to understand which kinds of financial crises has been occurred in each crisis year). Then the trained model (trained model based on data of 1979-2008) was simulated using the data of 10 macroeconomic variables of Iran’s economy during 2008-2012, in order to access the capacity of occurred financial crises of years of 1979-2008 to explain and predict the financial crisis of Iran’s economy during 2011-2012. The results of simulation process indicated that the financial crisis of Iran’s economy during 2011-2012 has had a completely different kind of crisis pattern, compared with those patterns which have occurred in Iran’s economy during 1978-2012.
Keywords: Financial Crisis- -LVQ Model- Prediction-Iran’s Economy
Full-Text [PDF 399 kb]   (820 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2014/06/23 | Accepted: 2015/03/16 | Published: 2015/03/16
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Ghavam M, Ebadi J. Typological analysis of similarity and predictability of Iran’s financial crisis during 2011-2012 based on previous financial crises of Iran’s economy. 3. 2015; 22 (72) :77-104
URL: http://qjerp.ir/article-1-899-en.html


Volume 22, Issue 72 (Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies 2015) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه پژوهشها و سیاستهای اقتصادی Journal of Economic Research and Policies
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