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In this study the monthly prices of maize and soybean as main oilseed crops were forecasted using Exponential Smoothing and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. To perform the study, monthly data for period 1370-Farvadin to 1387-Tir was utilized. The data was obtained from the Animal Sector Support Company. Data for the period of 1371-Farvardin to 1385-Isfand was used to estimate the models and data for 1386-Farvardin to 1387-Tir was applied to evaluate the forecast ability of the models. Evaluation measures including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used in the study. The results showed that Exponential Smoothing is able to forecast the monthly price of the selected crops more accurately as compared with the other models.

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Elderly population which has tripled in the past four decades requires more attention to pension plans and social security programs. This study explains the factors that affect the formation and development of social security programs in different countries in the framework of political and, economic - population theories. Based on these theories, the paper also analyzes the relationship between the political structure and social security plans. To this end, Dixon index is used as an indicator for determining social security efficiency in a regression model to analyze the political and economic factors effecting the efficiency of social security programs. The results show that in countries that enjoy greater degree of political freedom, the social security systems have higher efficiency. While for the rich and poor countries who suffer from the lower degree of political freedom, political factors have little role. In this content, economic factors including the share of aged population (65 years old and more) and also unfair income distribution have more effect on the efficiency of social security system in these countries.

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Presence of government in economy, particularly after Great Depression in the 1930s, following Keynes theory, has had different consequences for the economy. The governments, using appropriate fiscal instruments, have made considerable contribution to capital formation, economic growth, economic stability, employment, equality and proper allocation and mobilization of resources. On the other hand, inappropriate interventions of governments in economy can cause some undesirable results such as corruption, reduction in private investment, rent seeking and so on. Therefore, the volume of government activities has been a matter of interest to experts and economists in recent decades. Making investments, as an integral component of aggregate demand and a pillar of economic development, has been affected by the activities of the public sector. This paper examines the relationship between government expenditures and private investments in construction sector for the time period (1970-2007). The main difference between this study and other researches in this field, in the country, is the attention given to the mode of financing costs in the model. The long term coefficients represent that capital expenditures on machinery and construction have crowding-in and crowding-out effects, respectively, on private investment in construction sector. Capital expenditures on machinery are more effective, if financed by tax revenues, while capital spending on construction is more effective when the non-tax sources are provided. The government expenditure has crowding-in effect when financed by tax, while the expenditure does not have significant effect when financed by non-tax resources.

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This research tries to form an econometric model, using panel data approach, to examine the influence of unemployment and other socio - economic variables on homicide, larceny and suicide. Empirical evidence shows a direct relationship between unemployment and the above- said social abnormalities, though revealing themselves with one or two periodic lags. It should be mentioned that the destructive effects of unemployment exceeds that of inflation, so the anti-unemployment policies take priority over anti-inflationary policies if can not be implemented concurrently

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Proper functioning of capital markets has a particular importance in economic development of each country. Since the efficiency of capital markets represent its function, the aim of this study is to discuss weak level of market efficiency in the Tehran Stock Exchange, using a technically advanced method and a new approach. The stock markets may be in the different stages of development so models with stable and sustainable parameters could not describe different degrees of market efficiency overtime. Hence, examination of weak form efficiency alone would not enough. This study using time varying parameter GARCH model and the weekly data of TEPIX during March, 21 of 2001 up to June 21, 2010, dynamically analyzes the efficiency of Tehran Stock Exchange over time. According to the findings of this research, after 2003 some signs of slow and gradually movement towards efficiency improvement is felt.

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In this paper we study how oil price and oil price volatility affect stock return and volatility of stock return. In order to assess this effect Markov- Switching model has been used and furthermore HP filter, GARCH model and Wavelet analysis model have been used for extracting oil price volatility. Comparison of results shows that Wavelet method has more accurate and detailed results. Furthermore results show that oil price increases do not have significant effect on stock returns and only will decrease of stock return volatility. However oil price volatility in D1(t) scale that extracting from Wavelet decomposition do not has significant effect on stock return, but oil price volatility in D2(t) and D3(t)scales have positive effect on stock return in market boom condition. In addition, results show that, transition matrix is sensitive to scaling on oil price volatility.

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One challenging and critical problem in behavior finance is how to establish verifiable models describing the appearance price bubbles.In this paper, Building on Shleifer and Vishny (1979), seminal work, and with assumption of being myopic arbitragers, the aim is to test if existence of rational bubble is due to activity and response of noise traders to noisy information?Using Tehran Stock Exchange data from 2004:M3 to 2015:M6, an autoregressive regime-switching model of stock price dynamics in which the process creates pricing bubbles in one regime while a linear co-integration relationship between dividends and prices prevails in the other, is estimated. Empirical results indicate that the probability of regime-switching depends on exogenous inflation and lagged price. The results emphasize the importance of the impact of noisy information causing the deviation of prices from intrinsic value.

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The aim of this paper is to study the effects of recessions and booms of the housing market on credit tightening in Iranian banking system. So, we use dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model based on New Keynesians approach. By setting the parameters and the initial values with using the calibration method for during 1369-1394, the validity of the proposed framework to simulate the model for Iran’s economy are confirmed by the results. Furthermore, the results of the survey show that the negative housing demand shock with a price reduction in the housing market would cause a decrease in the quality of bank’s balance sheets, and banks credit supply, as a result of this process, decrease and credit tightening will occur. A positive housing demand shock, not only lead to increases the credibility of banks but also induce decreases in the consumption, production, investment and employment in the non-housing sector, so eventually cause the GDP to decrease. With consideration of housing price increase, the general level of prices would increase too. As a result, the prosperity of housing market demand not only has not any positive effect on the economy but also is a factor of the recession in the economy.
 
 

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Theories of conventional economics say that the increase in consumption can increase the welfare (both objective welfare and subjective welfare) of individuals, but recent studies, which have been done by the economists of happiness found the opposite results. In fact, studies in this area show that if people spend their money on experiential purchases, they will get more subjective welfare. But the categorization of costs based on experiential and material leads to a lack of attention to the main motive for the consumption. In order to avoid this problem, in this paper, the expenditures of people is divided into six different groups based on their motivation and then, with the help of observations and data obtained from the completion of the questionnaires by residents over 20 years of age living in Tehran and by using one sample T-test and multivariate regression in SPSS22 software, the effect of the consumption on the welfare of individuals has been studied empirically. The results of this research show that, firstly, the mere use of subjective or objective indicators of welfare alone cannot give adequate insight into the state of the society, because it is possible that under the influence of some variables, these indicators diverge. Secondly, contrary to the beliefs of some economists that more consumption is essential for increasing the welfare of the society, all forms of consumption not only cannot increase the subjective welfare of individuals but also maybe incapable of satisfying the basic needs of individuals. Therefore, it seems that more research is needed in this area.
 

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The financial market plays an important role in any economic system by financing the real sector. Considering the major contribution of the credit market to total financing in Iran, it is clear that inefficiencies and market risks can significantly affect the real sector. In the Iranian economy, in recent years, credit crunch has been created for many reasons. The purpose of this paper is to study the most important reasons for the credit crunch in the Iranian banking network and their effects on bank lending and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the Iranian banking system has been tried to be organized within the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in order to create a new horizon for policy impact assessment. The results show that the nonperforming loan shocks is more effective in reducing credit than other shocks, and the length of time it goes away is longer.
 

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Exchange rate fluctuations and the degree of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market through foreign reserves simultaneously determine the foreign exchange market pressure. This concept is considered as one of the important indicators related to the behavior of monetary authorities in policy-making, which affects other economic variables through foreign trade channels and inflation expectations. In this paper, foreign exchange market pressure is analyzed at the monetary policy function based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model for Iran. the behavior of policymakers is modeled against exchange rate shock and foreign earnings from oil exports shock. Exchange rate shocks are compared in two models. n the first model, the central bank adjusts its monetary policy in response to the foreign exchange market pressure index, and in the second model,the central bankchr('39')s monetary policy response to nominal exchange rate, based on other empirical studies of Iranchr('39')s  monetary policy. Based on the results of the first model, the exchange rate shock causes less fluctuations in inflation, production, consumption and investment rather than the second model, and the effects of exchange rate shock are discharged on the economic variables in a shorter period of time. Therefore, the effectiveness of the central bankchr('39')s monetary policy through sensitivity to foreign exchange market pressure will be higher than the nominal exchange rate.

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Banks are one of the most important economic pillars of countries that play a significant role in their growth and development. In Iran, due to the expansion of the financial and monetary system, banks have practically taken on the task of collecting and allocating economic resources. One of the important tasks of banks is the optimal management of assets and liabilities with the aim of maximizing returns while minimizing risk. The results of research in this regard show that the optimal allocation of resources leads to increased income and reduced bank risk, will be. In this study, we intend to optimize the real structure by optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities of commercial banks including Mellat, Saderat, Tejarat, Parsian, Pasargad, Eghtesad Novin, Sina, Karafarin, Dey and Middle East using the Mean-Variance model. Letchr('39')s compare the real and optimal structure of banks and then separate the banks into two categories of privatized state-owned banks and fully private banks, examine the effect of management on how to manage the resources and expenses of banks.
The research findings show that the combination of bankschr('39') resources and expenditures on some assets and liabilities, including credit facilities granted to customers and banks, as well as current and investment deposits, is significantly different. It is calculated with the optimal combination. The research results also show that the combination of assets, liabilities and equity of private banks is more similar to the optimal composition than privatized state-owned banks, and these banks have performed better in managing their resources and expenditures.

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For many years, the budget deficit has been studied as an important variable in economics, and various schools and scholars have identified its causes and influential factors. However, since the 1990s, increasing attention has been directed toward the effect of institutional and political indicators on the budget deficit, and corruption has been introduced as one of the key contributors. This article, by introducing and calculating a composite index of financial corruption based on the deprivation theory and choosing the four economic dimensions of government spending, investment, income and economic freedom, investigates the effects of financial corruption on the budget deficit in 120 selected countries from 2007 to 2017 using the generalized torque method (GMM). The results show that, assuming other conditions constant, a one- unit increase in the corruption index increases the budget deficit by an average of 49/3 units, which indicates the positive and direct effect of corruption on the budget deficit. Also, according to the significance of the estimation, the variables of inflation, government spending, taxes and oil revenues have a positive effect on the budget deficit, while higher economic growth leads to a reduction in the budget deficit.