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Showing 2 results for Smuggling
Dr Saeid Javad Emadi, Dr Mahdi Jafari, Dr Raziyh Davari Kish,
Volume 31, Issue 107 (12-2023)
Abstract
Goods smuggling as a branch of the informal economy has destructive effects on social and economic development in developing countries. The most significant negative impact of smuggling on the economy is the decline in economic growth. Also, goods smuggling increases unemployment due to unequal competition with legal and official activities. Therefore, investigating the determinants of goods smuggling is very vital. The performance of policymakers through monetary and fiscal policies is one of the factors that can play a considerable role in controlling or expanding smuggling: while the issue has been examined in experimental studies less than other issues. Therefore, this research seeks to investigate the impact of monetary and financial policies on goods smuggling from 1998 to 2021 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and Seasonal data. The results of the research showed that in the short term, the coincidence of expansionary monetary and financial policies leads to an increase in smugglingIn the long run, expansionary fiscal policy causes to increase in smuggling, but expansionary monetary policy lead to a reduction in smuggling. Increasing exchange rate, political and economic risks also increase smuggling in the short run and the long run, increasing of exchange rate and economic risk lead to an increase in smuggling, but increasing of political risk leads to a decrease in smuggling. Therefore, it is suggested that considering the direct impact of monetary and financial policies on smuggling, they should follow the central bank's independence in providing policy packages and correct targeting.
Mr Meysam Hadad, ,
Volume 32, Issue 109 (6-2024)
Abstract
Calculating the value of goods smuggling and correctly estimating the economic factors affecting it are important in order to adopt policies related to the fight against goods smuggling. In the present study, the value of goods smuggling was calculated using the international trade method. Also, by introducing the unobservable component of the trend and creating a state-space model, using the method of structural time series and applying the Kalman filter algorithm, the coefficients were estimated and the short-term and long-term elasticities of the factors affecting goods smuggling were calculated. The data used in this research is a time series during the period of 1971-2021. First, by using the variables of Iran's import and export of other countries to Iran, the value of goods smuggling was calculated. The variables of unemployment rate, inflation rate, tax burden and the difference between official and free exchange rates were used to identify the factors affecting the smuggling of goods. The results indicate that the estimated underlying trend is not smooth and its nature is of the type of relative level model. According to the estimated model, in the short and long term, the unemployment rate has the greatest effect with 0.099 and 0.155, respectively, and the inflation rate has the least effect with 0.0062 and 0.0096, respectively, on the increase in the value of smuggling during the studied period. has it. Based on the results of this research, the general policy for the economic fight against goods smuggling and also to support the national production is to reduce the unemployment rate. Also, among other policies to combat goods smuggling, we can mention reducing the tax burden, controlling the inflation rate, and reducing the difference between the official and free exchange rates.
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