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Applying the Nonlinear Mild Transition Regression (STR) Model in Determining the Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and the Financial Burden of Pension Funds for the Government
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Faranak Mokri   , Fatemeh Zandi * , Seyed Shamseddin Hosseini , Mohammad Khezri |
| Faculty member of South Tehran University , F_zandi@azad.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (1938 Views) |
| The purpose of this article is considering the macroeconomic variables affecting on financial burden of Iranian pension funds, which these variables are unemployment rate, inflation rate, stock exchange return rate, economic growth rate and real exchange rate. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period 1384 to 1398 and non-linear transfer regression model(STR) have been used. The results of model estimation showed that the variables of economic growth, stock exchange return and real exchange rate have negative effects on the financial burden of pension funds for government budget in both low and high regimes (inflation ≤15%) and (inflation ≥15%). Also, in a low-inflation regime, rising inflation had more short-term inflationary effects on the financial burden of pension funds .In addition, the sum of the coefficients of the unemployment rate and its intermittent values were positive in the first regime and negative in the second regime, so that, in the first regime an increase in the unemployment rate had severe short-term inflationary effects on The financial burden has been on pension funds for the government budget. Based on the obtained results, reforming the country's pension regulations and paying attention to actuarial calculations, reviewing restrictive laws in the field of pension fund investment, settlement of claims of them by the government and also the existence of a regulatory body for these funds were presented. |
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| Keywords: Macroeconomic variables, Pension funds, Financial burden on government budget, STR model |
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Full-Text [PDF 1346 kb]
(559 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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