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Application of Markov Switching Approach to identify
the Impacts of Preferred Exchange Rate on Barley price
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Ali Akbar Baghestany *   , Ebrahim Javdan , Ehsan Rajabi |
| Assistant Professor of Agricultural and Food Policy Research Group, Research Institute for Planning, Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Tehran, Iran , a.baghestany@gmail.com |
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Abstract: (81 Views) |
| The import of Barley, as one of the main inputs of animal feed, has done by a preferential exchange rate during 2018 to 2019. The main question is whether this allocation was able to be transferred to its price or not. To answer this question, time series data with monthly frequency of the price of barley, its world price and the official exchange rate during the period of Farvardin 2009 to Azar 2019 and the nonlinear model of Markov switching regime change (MSIAH) have been used. The results indicated that for the barley, the exchange rate has passed in three (3) different regimes and asymmetrically. Also, in none of the regimes, complete transition did not occur and the regimes identified were stable. In the short term, exchange rate to barley price in the first regime was significant and equal to two percent (2%). In the long term, the rate of passing in this regime was equal to four percent (4%). Due to the fact that the price of Barley, the amount and the period of passing of the preferred exchange rate have been very low and short, therefore it is suggested to refrain from re-allocating the currency with any preferential rate to this input. Since the cost of red meat production increases with the liberalization of the barley import rate, it is suggested to pay compensation to households as the final link of consumption and to help finance the producers as the demanders of imported inputs. |
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| Keywords: Exchange rate, Markov switching model, Atmosphere, Agricultural sector. |
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Full-Text [PDF 849 kb]
(53 Downloads)
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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