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The effects of trade sanctions on Iran;s economic Using the Computable General Equilibrium: Focusing on Production and prices
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Shahram Vasfi Asfestani *   , Asghar Abolhassani Hastiani , Bita Shaygani , Minoo Amini Milani |
| National Iranian Gaz Company , vasfi@nigc.ir |
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Abstract: (1301 Views) |
The main objective of this study is to assess the economic impacts of sanctions against Iran. This analysis was performed using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a focus on exports, imports, production, and price levels. After calibrating the CGE model and measuring the values of exogenous parameters and variables, the study assessed the economic impacts of sanctions on Iran’s economy using the 2016 input-output table (IOT) and other statistical information based on scenario building.
The results obtained using GAMS 34 and through two scenarios revealed that the import sanctions have had more severe economic impacts on Iran’s economy than the export sanctions, reducing economic growth by 6.72 and 9.87% and increasing the general level of production costs by 23.6 and 29.46% in the first and second scenarios, respectively. The export sanctions also led to an economic growth by 2.05 and 4.55% and increased the general level of production costs by 2.03 and 4.5% in the first and second scenarios, respectively. It is noteworthy that the general level of prices reduced in the export sanctions, which is consistent with the theoretical analysis. |
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| Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, Sanctions, Armington Assumption, Economic Growth, Inflation |
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Full-Text [PDF 1597 kb]
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
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