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Analysis of the power shortage in the hot season in Iran
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Kioumars Heydari *   |
| Department of Economics, Niro Research Institute and Director, Institute for Policy and Governance Studies , kheydari@nri.ac.ir |
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Abstract: (2 Views) |
The electric energy shortage during the summer months has engendered a crisis in Iran. The objective of this research is to identify the drivers of this crisis, the causal chain, and the means of extricating ourselves from it. Despite the extensive research literature and causality studies (for example, the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption), the pathology of this crisis has not been considered. The present study has investigated and identified the roots of the crisis using an analysis model based on a conceptual model and exploratory causality (evidence-based) from two paths, namely supply and demand channels, as well as factors related to climatic conditions and the quality of governance. The findings indicate that the proliferation of cooling equipment, inadequate governance practices that promote excessive consumption during periods of crisis, and the exploitation of electricity price reductions in tropical regions as a political instrument are among the primary factors contributing to the electricity crisis in Iran. The present crisis can be conceptualised as a seesaw pattern. It is evident that the aforementioned mechanisms function in a manner that is analogous to the intensification of demand pressure, suppression of supply capacities, and curtailment of production capacity. Finally, a new measure has been introduced that makes the assignment of a new branch conditional on the provision of production capacity bonds, as well as the obligation to purchase capacity bonds to compensate for the excess demand of existing subscribers by creating the possibility of exchanging these bonds. This is intended to be a means of exiting the crisis.
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| Keywords: Capacity Bonds, Iran's Electricity Crisis, Reverse Pricing Policy, Seesaw Pattern |
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Full-Text [PDF 1333 kb]
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Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
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