[Home ] [Archive]   [ فارسی ]  
:: Main :: About :: Current Issue :: Search :: Submit ::
Main Menu
Home::
Journal Information::
Articles archive::
For Authors::
For Reviewers::
Contact us::
statistical info::
::
Indexing and Abstracting
..
Islamic Economic Association Of Iran

..
Social Media




 
..
Paper Plagiarism Checker


 
..
:: Volume 33, Issue 115 (quarterly journal of economic research and policies 2025) ::
qjerp 2025, 33(115): 214-244 Back to browse issues page
Examining the Degree of Liquidity Endogeneity in Iran: A Random Forest Regression Approach
Abolfazl Dehghani , Kazem Yavari * , Mehdi Hajamini , Mohammad Hassan Zare
Faculty of Economics, Management and Accounting, Yazd University & - , kyavari@yazd.ac.ir
Abstract:   (487 Views)
This article examines the contribution of institutions influencing liquidity creation and the degree of its endogeneity in Iran’s economy. Within this framework, the Central Bank is distinguished from the government, private sector, foreign sector, and banking system. Quarterly data from 1996:Q1 to 2022:Q4 were analyzed using random forest regression, and the share of each institution was identified. Findings show that the Central Bank accounts for 35 percent of liquidity creation, while other institutions collectively contribute 65 percent. Among the variables, the Central Bank’s net foreign assets (representing the foreign sector) and the ratio of required reserves to demand deposits (Central Bank) play the most significant role in explaining liquidity behavior. The foreign sector, with a 55 percent share—mainly through oil revenues—has a decisive impact. Proper mechanisms for managing oil revenues could allow control over up to 90 percent of liquidity behavior. In contrast, inflation expectations, despite gaining attention since the 2010s, prove to be relatively insignificant in explaining liquidity dynamics.
Keywords: Liquidity, Endogeneity, Exogeneity, Central Bank, Random Forest Regression
Full-Text [PDF 613 kb]   (159 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
References
1. باقرپور اسکویی، الناز و عباس شاکری (1400). «بررسی ماهیت درونزایی و برون زایی نقدینگی در اقتصاد ایران». نظریه‌های کاربردی اقتصاد، 8(4)، صص 160-127.
2. بیابانی، جهانگیر؛ ابوالحسنی هستیانی، اصغر؛ مهرگان، نادر و داریوش حسنوند (1393). «بررسی درون‌زایی عرضه پول ایران (رویکرد آزمون مستقیم)». فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 3(12)، صص 259-237 .
3. سعادت مهر، مسعود (1400). «آزمون فرضیه درون‌زایی عرضه پول پست ‌کینزین در اقتصاد ایران». نظریه‌های کاربردی اقتصاد، 8(2)، 187-206.
4. صادقی نسب، شبنم؛ فلاحتی، علی و کیومرث سهیلی (1396). «درون‌زایی پول در ایران». اقتصاد پولی مالی، 24(14)، صص 21-1.
5. عرب‌یارمحمدی، جواد و علیرضا عرفانی (1395). «آزمون درونزایی پول در اقتصاد ایران». اقتصاد پولی مالی، 23(11)، صص 122-100.
6. فعال نصیری، محمدرضا؛ خوچیانی، رامین؛ آسایش، حمید و سید حسین سجادی‌فر (1401). «سازوکار اثرگذاری عوامل اقتصادی بر حجم سپرده بانکی در نظام بانکی ایران (آزمون درون زایی پول در مقابل برون زایی پول)». اقتصاد مالی (اقتصاد مالی و توسعه)، شماره162، صص179-200.
7. Arestis P. & P. Howells (1996). "Theoretical Reflections on Endogenous Money: The Problem with Convenience Lending". Cambridge Journal of Economics, 20(5), pp.539-551. [DOI:10.1093/oxfordjournals.cje.a013633]
8. Borio C. & P. Disyatat (2021). "The global financial cycle and monetary policy: A review". International Journal of Central Banking, 17(2), pp. 87-124.
9. Caporale G. M. & P.G.A. Howells (2001). "Money, Credit and Spending: Drawing Causal Inferences". Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 48(5), pp. 547-557. [DOI:10.1111/1467-9485.00214]
10. Cyrille S. M. & M. Christophe (2020). "The endogenous money hypothesis: empirical evidence from the CEMAC area (1990-2017)". Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 33(7), pp. 1-27. [DOI:10.1080/01603477.2020.1835493]
11. Fontana G. (2003). "Post Keynesian Approaches to Endogenous Money: A Time Framework Explanation". Review of Political Economy, 15 (3), pp. 291-314. [DOI:10.1080/09538250308431]
12. Friedman M. and A. Schwartz (1963). "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960". Princeton University Press.
13. Friedman M. (1968). "The Role of Monetary Policy". American Economic Review, 58(1), pp. 1-17.
14. Goodhart C. (1989). "Has Moore become too horizontal?". Journal of post Keynesian economics, 12(1), pp. 29-34. [DOI:10.1080/01603477.1989.11489778]
15. Gron A. (2019). Hands-on machine learning with Scikit-Learn, Keras and TensorFlow: concepts, tools, and techniques to build intelligent systems (2nd ed.). O'Reilly.
16. Ho T.K. (1995). "Random Decision Forest. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Document Analysis and Recognition", Montreal, 14(6), pp.278-282.
17. Howells P.G.A. (1995). "The Demand for Endogenous Money". Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,18(1), pp.89-106. [DOI:10.1080/01603477.1995.11490060]
18. Kaldor N. & J. Trevithick (1982). "A Keynesian prospective on money". Lloyds Bank Review, 139(8), pp. 1-19.
19. Kaldor N. (1982). The Scourge of Monetarism, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
20. Kaldor N. (1985). "How monetarism failed", Challenge, 28(2), pp.4-13. [DOI:10.1080/05775132.01.11470996]
21. Keen S. (2020). "The role of banks in the creation of money: A critical review of current monetary theory". Journal of Economic Issues, 54(2), pp. 433-448.
22. Lavoie M. (1984). "The endogenous credit flow and the Post Keynesian theory of money", Journal of Economic Issues, 16(3), pp. 771-97. [DOI:10.1080/00213624.1984.11504274]
23. Lavoie M. (1985). "Credit and Money: The Dynamic Circuit, Overdraft Economics and Post Keynesian Economics", Money and Macro Policy. [DOI:10.1007/978-94-015-7715-1_4]
24. Lavoie M. (2022). "Monetary economics: An endogenous money approach". Cambridge Journal of Economics, 46(4), pp. 951-967.
25. Moore B. J. & A.R. Threadgold (1981). "Bank lending and the money supply". Economics Division, Bank of England. No. 10.
26. Moore B.J. (1988). "Horizontalists and verticalists: the macroeconomics of credit money". Cambridge University Press.
27. Moore B.J. (1989). "A simple model of bank intermediation". Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 12(1), pp. 10-28. [DOI:10.1080/01603477.1989.11489777]
28. Moore B.J. (1988b). "The endogenous money supply". Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 13(3), pp. 372-85. [DOI:10.1080/01603477.1988.11489687]
29. Mukamuhire A., Muremyi R. & W. Gasafari Mpabuka (2024). "Testing endogeneity of money supply: An application to Rwandan data". African Journal of Applied Research, 10(1), pp. 75-92. [DOI:10.26437/ajar.v10i1.669]
30. Ryan-Collins J. Greenham T. & R. Werner (2022). "The origins of money and the role of banks in the money creation process". Review of Keynesian Economics, 10(1), pp. 105-123.
31. Vanderplas J. (2016). Python data science handbook: essential tools for working with data. O'Reilly.
32. Vera A. P. (2001). "The endogenous money hypothesis: some evidence from Spain (1987-1998)". Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(3), pp. 509-526. [DOI:10.1080/01603477.2001.11490296]
33. Weintraub R. (1978). "Congressional supervision of monetary policy". Journal of Monetary Economics, 4(2), pp. 341-362. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(78)90013-2]
34. Werner R. (2014). The Role of Banks in the Creation of Money and Credit. In The Palgrave Handbook of Monetary Economics.
35. Werner Richard A. (2014). "Can Banks Individually Create Money Out of Nothing? The Theories and the Empirical Evidence", International Review of Financial Analysis, 36(9), pp. 1-19. [DOI:10.1016/j.irfa.2014.07.015]
36. Wray L.R. (2023). "Modern money theory: A critique and further development". Economic Thought, 12(1), pp. 50-68.
Send email to the article author

Add your comments about this article
Your username or Email:

CAPTCHA



XML   Persian Abstract   Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Dehghani A, Yavari K, Hajamini M, Zare M H. Examining the Degree of Liquidity Endogeneity in Iran: A Random Forest Regression Approach. qjerp 2025; 33 (115) :214-244
URL: http://qjerp.ir/article-1-3708-en.html


Rights and permissions
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution ۴.۰ International License (CC BY ۴.۰)
Volume 33, Issue 115 (quarterly journal of economic research and policies 2025) Back to browse issues page
فصلنامه پژوهشها و سیاستهای اقتصادی Journal of Economic Research and Policies
Persian site map - English site map - Created in 0.06 seconds with 43 queries by YEKTAWEB 4741