|
Comparative Evaluation and Analysis of Iran’s Economic Security Index with Selected Vision Document Countries Using PCA Approach and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)
|
Saeideh Houshmand Gohar *   |
| Department of Macro and Futures Studies, Institute For Trade Studies and Research , saedeh_hoshmand@yahoo.com |
|
|
Abstract: (7 Views) |
| Economic security, as one of the foundations of sustainable development, reflects the ability of the economy to face shocks and maintain stability and prosperity. This study uses a data-based approach and dynamic modeling with the aim of comparative assessment of the economic security of Iran and the selected countries of the Vision Document. In the first step, the composite index of economic security was calculated using the principal component analysis (PCA) method. The results showed that inflation and exchange rate fluctuations with the highest factor loading are the most important determinants of this index, while variables such as government external debt and trade balance play a lesser role. In the second step, the effect of policy variables was examined using the generalized moments model (GMM). The findings indicate that economic security has dynamics and historical memory, and the variables of economic growth, foreign investment, and political stability have a positive and significant effect on it. Also, these effects are strengthened in the long run, and political stability plays the largest role. Overall, the results show that strengthening economic security requires controlling inflation and currency fluctuations, promoting economic growth, attracting foreign investment, and creating sustainable political stability to pave the way for balanced and sustainable development. |
|
| Keywords: Economic Security, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), Political Stability, Human Development Index (HDI) |
|
|
Full-Text [PDF 932 kb]
(9 Downloads)
|
|
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Send email to the article author |
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
